Issue 93: 1-Year Anniversary Giveaway!
The moment you've all been waiting for! And 8 bets too! 😳
What up gang?! It’s been a minute!
Welcome back to another fabulous edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter, where I try to help you separate fact from fiction in the gambling world.
While I sadly did not release an issue on the first birthday of my newsletter, last Saturday, 8/26, marked one year for Chalk & Talk. It’s been a true pleasure to write this newsletter, and I thank you all so much for faithfully supporting me with your clicks. Thankfully I have given out more winners than losers over the last 12 months, so I hope you’ve tailed a few of my picks along the way.
Let’s take a look at the full 1-year profit chart!
Again, for those of you who do not fully understand, my total return is “units” which is the 42.96 number you see in the upper left corner. A unit is 1% of your bankroll, so that means I have returned a total of 42.96% this year. Not bad!
I find the term “ROI” in sports betting to be a real misnomer, because what that figure really shows is my average return per 100 units wagered. A better name for it would be “ROR” or “Rate Of Return”, but I digress. Returning an average of 3.05% per 100 units wagered is very good. It’s been a year to remember!
And to celebrate, I will be giving away an 8-graded Shohei Ohtani card!
If you would like to be eligible to win this fantastic prize, leave me comments and likes! Each comment and like you give me on this issue and the next one will give you one raffle ticket for this epic drawing, with a limit of 1 like + 1 comment per issue. Please don’t spam me, I’m just a kid with a Substack.
The winner will be announced in about 2 weeks! And of course, like last time, the video of the drawing will be posted to my Twitter and linked to in the Substack announcement! Can’t wait!
Now go hit that like button and leave a comment… Even if you hate me. 😜
One last quick thing I want to mention before I get into today’s picks.
In the last issue, I gave out Miami-Ohio +17.5. That line is now down to Miami-Ohio +16. That’s right! And that game kicks off today at 4pm Pacific time.
The Chalk & Talk army (145 subscribers strong!) is now sitting on a delightfully +EV college football bet for today! Congrats to those who took that one with me.
Now let me give you non-tailers a second chance.
Today’s picks
1 unit - MLB 9/1 5:15pm - Pirates ML @ Cardinals (-111)
Several significant trends and factors contribute to the high potential for longterm profit in this particular situation. The Pirates have a 5-1 record this season when playing as a favorite on the road against opponents below 500. Additionally, (yes I know this is a pretty based stat) St. Louis's record on Friday night games since April 21st is a dismal 1-14 when the total runs for the game is set at less than 11. Plus, in St. Louis's home games since October of last year, when their starting pitcher is coming off an outing where their earned run average (ERA) was at least 7.70 and the team incurred a loss, they are 0-12. I have to ride these trends and buy low on the Pirates at the same time.
Play good to -120, half unit to -130, no play below there.
0.75 unit - MLB 9/1 5:10pm - Yankees @ Astros -1 (-135)
While sports betting involves considering a lot of statistics, one factor that should not be underestimated is the impact of intangibles on the outcome of the game. Justin Verlander typically elevates his game when facing the Yankees, as evidenced by a meager .603 OPS against him for this NY lineup, and even Aaron Judge, the prominent Yankee player, has struggled with a mere 4 hits in 34 ABs against Verlander. It is also worth noting that there is speculation that the Yankees might prioritize developing their young talent and potentially sacrificing the season. In contrast, the Astros are aggressively chasing the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West.
The Astros have advantages in both hitting and bullpen strength. While it is true that a potential concern is the Astros returning home after a road trip, this factor should not be overemphasized. The excitement of facing the Yankees is likely to overcome any initial flatness. Take Astros -1.
Play good to -150, no play below there.
College Football picks for the weekend!
1 unit - NCAAF 9/2 9:00am - Colorado @ TCU -20.5 (-110)
I love Deion Sanders and am confident that #CoachPrime will ultimately bring a positive transformation to the Colorado football program, but it's important to temper expectations for an immediate turnaround. Sanders made significant changes to the Colorado roster, essentially assembling an entirely new team in Boulder. This level of roster overhaul is quite unusual. Teams with such a substantial influx of new players (and that's a massive understatement for the Buffs) require time to develop chemistry and cohesion.
Facing a formidable opponent on the road, especially one that reached the National Championship game last season, is an enormous challenge. While TCU has also experienced some roster changes, including the departure of QB Max Duggan, the key distinction lies in the fact that most of TCU's replacements have had the opportunity to familiarize themselves with the program and its systems. It's worth mentioning that TCU's QB Chandler Morris actually started the game against Colorado last season before suffering an injury. I expect the Horned Frogs to roll here.
Half unit at -21, no play at -21.5 or lower.
1 unit - NCAAF 9/3 4:30pm - LSU @ Florida State +2.5 (-110)
I personally made this line Florida State -2, indicating some serious value in favor of the Seminoles. It's true that LSU may have revenge on their minds after last season's narrow 24-23 defeat to FSU, but that alone doesn't guarantee they will secure it, despite what the public seems to be thinking. It's important to recall that FSU dominated the majority of last season's game, maintaining control for about 55 minutes. FSU also has one of the most experienced teams in the nation, while LSU has lost 10 players to the NFL draft.
This Sunday night showdown serves as the weekend's final game, and there's a possibility that many bettors might chase their earlier losses by heavily backing LSU. So, it may be wise to hold off on betting this until kickoff and try to get a 3 instead of a 2.5. That said I think there is still plenty of value in the current line so that’s what I’m going to go with, but you do you!
Play good to +2, half unit to +1. No play at pick ‘em or worse.
0.5 unit - NCAAF 9/2 9:00am - Arkansas State @ Oklahoma under 58 (-110)
When assessing a Week 1 game, concerns about players in a "look-ahead spot" are generally not a major factor. These athletes have eagerly awaited the opportunity to get back on the field all summer. However, it's still essential to consider the Week 2 schedule to gain insight into the coaches' thought processes. In this case, Oklahoma is set to face SMU next week, and given the considerable preseason hype surrounding the Mustangs, it's reasonable to assume that the Sooners' coaching staff is already contemplating that matchup.
Assuming that Oklahoma lives up to its role as a substantial 35-point favorite against Arkansas State in this game, it's likely that a conservative game plan will be employed in the second half to avoid revealing too much to SMU. It's worth noting that Oklahoma faced a similar situation last season when they took on Kent State as a 34-point favorite at the start of the season, with a matchup against Nebraska on the horizon the following week. The Sooners won that game comfortably with a 33-3 score, and there was never a threat to the over total.
Arkansas State's offensive struggles last season, ranking among the worst in the country, and their low No. 122 ranking in returning production further suggest that Sooners' head coach Brent Venables is likely to prioritize a strong defensive performance. He will likely challenge his defense to prevent the Red Wolves' offense from reaching the endzone throughout the entire 60-minute contest.
Play good to 57.
0.5 unit - NCAAF 9/2 5:00pm - South Alabama +6.5 @ Tulane (-110)
Last season South Alabama consistently kept their losses within a four-point margin and outperformed expectations as underdogs in two games. With 18 returning starters, they pose a challenge to Tulane, which made a remarkable turnaround from a 2-10 record in 2021 to 12-2 last year (fade-the-overachieving-team angle, anyone?) but faces significant graduation losses, especially on defense. Their previous meeting was decided by a field goal, indicating another close matchup ahead. South Alabama is a live dog against a Tulane team that might face challenges following its breakout 2022 season. That said, South Alabama is still not a great football team so I am being careful here.
Play good to +6.
Two soccer picks!
1 unit - MLS 9/2 4:30pm - Columbus Crew @ Montreal Impact DNB (-107)
Columbus seems stronger this season on neutral ground. They average 14.2 shots per match with 5.0 on target, while Montreal averages 11.0 shots with 3.7 on target. Columbus has a +0.36 xG differential (1.56 created, 1.20 allowed), while Montreal has a -0.24 xG differential (1.08 created, 1.32 allowed). However, home and away performances change the picture. Montreal maintains a 1.08 xG average but improves defensively at home (0.88 xG allowed). Columbus's xG drops to 1.19 away, with 1.50 xGA.
Recent results also favor Montreal at home (nine wins, three losses), while Columbus struggles away (two wins, 23 goals conceded in 12 matches). Columbus has one win in nine trips to Montreal. Give me the Impact, Draw No Bet.
Play good to -140, no play if you have to lay a half goal or take the ML, though I doubt that will happen.
1 unit - Bundesliga 9/3 8:30am - RB Leipzig @ Union Berlin over 2.5 (-110)
Union Berlin has maintained its unpredictable performance this year, securing two victories in the first two matches of the season and netting eight goals, surpassing their expected goals (xG) of 3.75. This trend carries over from the previous season when Union Berlin, despite having the league's weakest offensive xG record, managed to finish fourth in the league.
Following closely in the scoring department this season is RB Leipzig, who have notched seven goals in their initial two matches, including a five-goal spree against VfB Stuttgart last week. In the previous season, only Bayern Munich (!) exceeded RB Leipzig's overall xG performance in away matches.
In the past six head-to-head encounters between these two teams, both sides have consistently scored, resulting in a minimum of three goals per game. The current total of 2.5 seems quite off. Give me the over.
Play good to over 3 at plus money. Don’t touch it above there.
Alright guys, that does it for me today. Go out there and rip those bets, boys and girls!
Your bookie is paying for the drinks this weekend, I promise!
And don’t forget to like and comment on this post to get raffle tickets for the giveaway!
Adios,
8-Bit
Keep going dude! Been great to see your growth!
Congratulations on your one year anniversary — and kudos for your impressive one-year ROR! Ohtani to the Red Sox? 🤞 I want the card! 😼