What’s up dolphins and dingos?!
Happy Friday, and welcome back to another rapturous edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter. I hope that your hearts and wallets will be filled by what you read here today.
Quick note: it’s my birthday on Sunday. I’m turning 27. If you don’t wish me a happy birthday in the comment section you are basically the Grinch.
While I have been releasing fewer issues of this fine publication recently, I would like to point you all in the direction of the Substack “Notes” feature.
If you have the Substack app you probably already know what I’m talking about, but if you don’t, go get the app! I have been releasing one pick on there every day for the last few days and plan to continue to do so on non-newsletter days.
Click here to see an example of what I’m talking about.
I will continue to post picks on my Twitter as well, but I am looking to start to transition more completely to Substack because Twitter is a horribly toxic app that wastes a lot of my time. Also, screw Elon Musk and all that.
Anyway, moving on…
Tonight I am going to LFA 165!
LFA, Legacy Fighting Alliance, is basically a minor-league UFC. Like, very minor-league. I’m excited as hell though! Check it out ⬇️
A very interesting story here is one of the fights on the prelim card, Mitchell vs. Brador. This is going to sound crazy, but I have insider info that I want to share with you guys. I am going to write it in Google Docs and take a screenshot so that this doesn’t come up in Google searches.
Mitchell is 0-2 and hasn’t fought in 4 years though. And the girl she’s facing is 2-0 and most recently had a pro fight 2 years ago. Mitchell is a +165 underdog.
Honestly though, just given those records and times between most recent pro fights, I would’ve expected Mitchell to be a lot more than a +165 dog (something in the +300 range), which makes me think that someone at BetOnline/DraftKings knows about the 💉.
So, you be the judge.
I’ll let you guys know how the fight ends up going with a Substack Note tomorrow.
Alright, enough chit-chat. Let’s start to get into some real serious gambling content. Before I show you my profit chart, I think now would be an appropriate time to review how my MLB futures bets are doing as the baseball season is now about 3-quarters of the way done. Let’s take a look at ‘em!
1.5u - SF Giants over 80.5 wins (-128), current FanGraphs projection: 85 😁
Not a total lock yet, but looking very good.
1u - Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP (+222), current odds: -30,000 🤩
Possibly the free-est coin I have ever gotten in my history of sports betting. This, my friends, is a stone cold 🔒!
1u - NY Yankees o94.5 wins (-110), current FanGraphs projection: 81 🤮
All I have to say is… Ratshit wager.
1u - CO Rockies u65.5 wins (-115), current FanGraphs projection: 61 😃
Like the Giants one, I can’t use the 🔒 emoji on this one yet, but it’s trending in the right direction for sure.
0.5u - OAK Athletics o59.5 wins (-105), current FanGraphs projection: 52 🤢
I’ve got to be better than this, man. Seriously, the A’s?!
If all of these projections hold, I will go 3-2, with a net gain of +2.76u! That would be a pretty tremendous result. Fingers crossed, y’all!
Ok, so about that profit chart—
Things have been a little rough recently, I can’t lie. But as a wise man once said…
When the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Let’s do this.
Today’s plays
1.75 units - MLB 8/18 4:20pm - Giants @ Braves team total over 4.5 (-155)
Not quite a max play because of the price, but I love backing the Braves’ offense as I think they have the best lineup in baseball, hands down. I have said it before and I’ll say it again— this team is gonna win the World Series. They are averaging close to 6 runs a game this week and have only scored less than that once in the last 5 days. They face the Giants who have Alex Cobb on the mound. Cobb has a high WHIP at 1.37 and the Giants bullpen has a 3.73 ERA collectively. I think the Braves will do most of the damage early here and Cobb vs the Braves in his career has a high OPS against at .826. The Braves have 3 players who hit over 1.000 OPS vs Cobb in their careers and I expect him to get tagged early and often here.
This play is good at any price at over 4.5, if this climbs to over 5.5 though, only put 0.75u on it. No play at over 5.5, -115 or worse.
1.5 units - MLB 8/18 7:10pm - Marlins @ Dodgers ML (-135)
The Dodgers have won 11 in a row and we are getting a great number here against a highly inferior team. Sandy Alcantara gets a lot of credit from the books but he actually has almost identical numbers to Dodgers starter Gonsolin. The bullpens are not very consistent but the Dodger lineup is head and shoulders above Miami. I like this price to back the Dodgers, and just like last night I will be putting 1.5u on them.
Reduce to 1u at -150, and 0.5u at -160. No play at -165 or lower.
1 unit - MLB 8/18 5:10pm - Pirates @ Twins -1.5 (-105)
The drawback here is the Twins season-long inconsistency in full game run line situations (26-33 at home). Possibly negating that is their 4-1 home record this month where three of the four wins have been run line covers. Positives for Minnesota support here are strong including the starting pitching edge where red-hot RH Pablo Lopez rates a significant edge over Pittsburgh reliever Andre Jackson. Lopez is in the midst of a seven-game stretch since the start of July where he has had one poor start surrounded by six gems. In those six outings, Lopez has put together a stat line of 40 IP / 33 base runners allowed / 5 runs allowed / 47 K's-4 BB's (nearly 12:1 ratio!) / 1.13 ERA & 0.83 WHIP. Contrast that to Jackson's 10 erratic trips to the hill (9 relief / 1 start) and the advantage is glaring. Bucs trying Jackson in the opener role for a second straight turn but last Friday's start at Cincinnati saw him allow 7 base runners and 3 ER in just 3.2 innings. I say we keep riding this downward trend for the Bucs and take Minnesota -1.5!
Play good to -115, reduce to 0.5u from -116 to -125. No play at -126 or lower.
1 unit - MLB 8/18 5:10pm - Mariners @ Astros F5 under 4.5 (-105)
Seattle’s offense scored 6+ runs in all four of their games against the Royals this week. That would indicate a hot offense to most, but looks can be deceiving. Just one guy is red-hot right now. Julio Rodriguez has gone 9-for-11 over the last two days and is responsible for over half of Seattle’s runs in those two games. The rest of the lineup has just been floating along for the most part. What’s more, Seattle was the first team that JP France faced at the MLB level, and he held them scoreless on three hits with one walk in 5.0 innings back in May. The same thing can be said for Seattle's Bryce Miller. Houston was the second opponent that Miller saw at the MLB level, and he held them scoreless on two hits with one walk in 6.0 innings back in May. France hasn't allowed more than two runs in each of his last five starts. Since the All-Star break, he's 5-0 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. The under in the first 5 innings looks prime to me!
Play good to -115, reduce to 0.5u down to even money at under 4.
0.5 unit - MLB 8/18 7:10pm - Marlins F5 ML @ Dodgers (+101)
Just in case Sandy Alcantara breaks out with a vintage performance tonight… 😉
Two Italian Soccer plays for the weekend!
1 unit - Serie A 8/19 11:45am - Monza +1.5 @ Inter Milan (-120)
Facing Inter to start this season will not be an easy task, but Monza beat Inter during their run to end last year, along with Napoli, proving they could get results against the top teams in Serie A. They also drew with Inter earlier in the season, so if anything, they have the belief that they can get a result vs Inter. Monza ended the season allowing an average of just 1.12 xGA per match after allowing 1.54 over their first 24 matches, and I think that momentum will carry into the opening day here against an Inter squad that looks very different than the one that played in the UCL Final against Manchester City. Monza also spent $41M to try and bolster their squad this offseason while selling no one as they look to make a push into the top-half of the table. I am probably going to be riding this team a lot this year, so let’s get it started!
Play good to -130, reduce to 0.5u at plus money +1.25.
0.5 unit - Serie A 8/20 11:45am - Lazio -0.25 @ Lecce (-128)
While Lazio has lost some key players from last season's 2nd place heroics, they've also added some much need depth as well, bringing in Taty Castellanos, Gustav Isaksen, and Daichi Kamada over the summer to add to an already formidable attack. Lecce meanwhile got weaker in the recent transfer window and has had other major issues as well, most notably failing to agree to terms with former manager Marco Baroni and running out last season by picking up just nine points from a possible 45 in the league. This is also a great revenge spot for Lazio as Lecce have won their last 2 matches in this stadium. Lazio will have a point to prove. Play good to -135.
A Week 1 NCAA Football play!
1.5 units - NCAAF 9/1 4:00pm - Miami Ohio +17.5 @ Miami Florida (-110)
I've been hearing a ton about how great Miami (FL) is going to be defensively this year and wouldn’t be surprised at all if these offenses are not well-oiled during week 1. Also, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the 'Canes look ahead to Texas A&M and do the bare minimum to win here. Miami (OH) has a tremendous defense. I think this ends up being an ugly but competitive game and expect the points to come in handy here. Expecting something in the neighborhood of a 27-17 Miami Florida win. Take the points with the lesser-known Miami.
Play good to +17, 1u from +16.5 to +15, 0.5u down to +14.
A NCAA Football Futures MAX play!
2 units - NCAAF Futures - Toledo to win the MAC West (-130)
So I actually released this one a few weeks ago on Twitter but forgot to add it to my Substack. Oops! Well, you guys have it now! Just hammer this play and stop asking questions.
Well, guys, that does it for me today.
The next time I write to you all will be the ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY of this newsletter! So, of course, there will be a giveaway announcement. Look out for that when the big day (8/26) comes!
Ok. Gotta go. Peace!
8-Bit
🙃🎂🤞💰👏🏼⭐️
Happy Birthday 8bit!!