Good afternoon, skunks and scoundrels.
Welcome back to yet another unflappable edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter. Today, June 19th of 2023, I have a message to deliver to you.
Your support still means the world to me. Thanks for reading. ā¤ļø
And today, Iāve got a couple of things to quickly mention and then an even quicker brag to do before I get into my picks. I promise to keep it short since my first pick starts at 11:45am.
Firstly, my top play (scroll down to see it!) starts at 4:40pm today, and I will be sweating it live on Twitch. If youād like to stop by, my stream will start at 4:30pm Pacific time today. Click here to join me when the time comes.
Also, I recently discovered a pretty incredible Substack. It is called āGetting CONCACAFedā, and you can click here to check it out. I was drawn in to this Substack by this incredible story about Sint Maarten legend Gerwin Lake. If you are into soccer, particularly in North/Central America and the Caribbean, this Substack is for you. Jon Arnold does an amazing job with that page.
Now back to my betsā¦
On Saturday I released a full slate of UFC picks on Twitter for the first time in my history of releasing picks. Previously I had released 2 UFC picks ever and was 0-2. But check this outā¦
That brings my all-time UFC record to 3-3, +1.79u, a mark to be proud of. I have been monitoring UFC trends and angles as well as analyzing line movement for a while now and finally dipped my toes in the water for real. What great success! Feeling proud of myself today. Will I have more UFC plays for you all coming up? Iād have to think so.
And with that performance, I went over 50 units gained all time!
That means (as I explained in the last issue) that if you had placed every bet I have ever placed exactly as I placed it, you would be up over 50% in total. Since 10/9/22, when I started my tracking, the Dow Jones is up 17%. Not much more for me to say about that my friends!
Sadly I had a losing day yesterday though, so I have just barely been put back below the 50 units mark.
Before we get into todayās picks, click here to see one of the most insane soccer trick shots I have ever seen in my entire life. I canāt stop thinking about this shit.
Anyway, letās win some money or whatever. Iām all over the place today.
Todayās plays
1.5 units - MLB 6/19 4:40pm - Red Sox @ Twins ML (-138)
(Lopez must start)
Is Red Sox starter James Paxton rolling right now? You betcha. Is he throwing strikes and missing bats? Totally. But is he giving up loud contact at the same time? Yep. Check out Paxtonās Baseball Savant profile:
Not bad at all, Mr. Paxton! However, the Twins make a lot of contact. James Paxton will have a hard time racking up Kās and whiffs tonight. This is a very strong lineup, especially now that Carlos Correa is back. And Paxtonās last 3 starts have been against the Guardians, Rockies, and Reds, none of which pack the punch that Minnesota does. I expect the Twins to put up good numbers today, and Pablo Lopez has been dealing for the Twins, so the starting pitching edge certainly goes to the home team. We are also getting an amazing spot to fade Boston in, the Sunday Night Baseball Hangover spot! This angle has been profitable for years, and not only did the Red Sox play in that spot last night, but they played a home double-header yesterday. This is a Twins spot all day long, and I expect them to bring home the victory at Target Field tonight.
This is the Twitch stream game!
Play this to -145 for 1.5u, and then reduce by a half unit for every 10 cents of juice you have to pay above there.
1 unit - Euro 2024 Qual. 6/19 11:45am - Kazakhstan +1 @ Northern Ireland (-125)
This one starts in 30 minutes! Go lock it in ASAP! I released this on Twitter yesterday, so sadly -125 is not a readily available number as I write now. That said, I think there is still value at the number of -140, though I would only play it for 0.75u.
Northern Ireland have won just 4 of their last 29 competitive matches in the last 3 years (4 wins, 15 losses, 10 draws). Those 4 wins came against lowly Lithuania (twice), Kosovo, and San Marino. Yuck. In the win against Kosovo, they had to score goals in the 82nd and 93rd minutes in order to win. Lol.
Kazakhstan is coming off back-to-back wins against San Marino (3-0) and Denmark (3-2) and have scored in all 3 matches so far. Their majestic win over Denmark was huge, coming back from two goals behind to get all 3 points. Kazakhstan is in a 4-way tie for 1st place.Ā They have been playing very well and have all the urgency in the world to take this game. Since 2022, Kazakhstan has lost just 2 of 11 competitive matches (7 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws), losing by 1 goal and 3 goals respectively (but they had an early red card in that 3-goal loss). They have been playing much better than Northern Ireland and even a draw here wouldn't be too bad.Ā Them being a full-goal underdog here makes no sense to me. I see this game ending in either a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 Kazakhstan win. If you wanted to sprinkle on those results, whether exact score forecast or not, I wouldnāt hate on you for it. Itās Kazakh day, boys.
Play good for 1u to -135, 0.75u to -145, and 0.5u to -155 or +0.5 goal.
1 units - MLB 6/19 1:05pm - Cardinals @ Nationals team total over 3.5 (-140)
The Nationals average 4.1 runs per game against league-average pitching. Today they face Flaherty who has a 4.64 ERA and a horrible 1.59 WHIP. The Nationals hit an OPS of .799 vs Flaherty in his career, which is not great but he is just awful this season and I see the Nats pounding him in this one. The Cardsā bullpen has a respectable (but not great) 4.18 FIP collectively over the last ten days but I think most of the damage will be done on the starter. Take the Natsā team total over 3.5 for 1 unit, put a half unit on it if it climbs to 4, and no play at 4.5.
0.75 unit - MLB 6/19 3:40pm - Blue Jays ML @ Marlins (-150)
Jose Berrios is having a terrific month of June, going 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his past 3 starts. He didnāt allow a run in 7.2 innings of work in his last outing, and the Blue Jays have won 5 straight times heās taken the mound. The Marlins have overachieved to this point in the season, and this is a good game to target them with Bryan Hoeing (yes, that is actually his real last name) taking the mound. Hoeingās analytics are not good, and the Marlins are returning home after a lengthy road trip. Good spot to bet against them. Take the Blue Jays for 0.75u to -165, and reduce to 0.5u from -166 to -175. No play below -175.
0.75 unit - MLB 6/19 4:10pm - Rockies @ Reds ML (-163)
Both of these SPs are pretty bad. Gomber has a 1.7+ WHIP and Williamson has a 5.40 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP. Gomber's WHIP is actually 7.29. That is beyond horrible. It is hard to back a pitcher like Williamson at -150 but here is why I will. The Reds in the last 10 days are hitting almost .40 better wOBA than the Rockies and the bullpen's collective FIP is almost a full .5 run better. Over the season HRs are even, runs scored a slight favor to the Reds but the pitching is far in the Reds' favor.
Williamson has been bad against good teams like the Dodgers, but against bad teams like the Royals and even the Brewers, he has been great. Gomber has allowed a 6 and 7 spot in his last starts and allowed a 5 spot to Cincy the last time he saw them. He has a .956 OPS against vs the Reds in his career. Easy Reds spot, though I will be playing it for 0.75u because of the steep price tag we have to pay here. Play good to -175, reduce to a half unit from -176 to -185. No play below -185.
And one MLS play for Wednesday!
0.5 unit - MLS 6/21 4:30pm - Nashville SC @ CF Montreal under 2.75 (-108)
Montreal is allowing 1.86 xGA on the road this year, but at home, that number drops to just 0.97.Ā Their defense has been the key to their home form as their offense has still struggled to generate many chances, creating only 1.17 xG per 90 minutes in Stade Saputo. Only five other MLS teams are averaging fewer.
Nashville plays defense wherever they are, but in an odd twist, they allow less xGA away from home, one of just three teams that can say that.Ā Nashville allows 1.03 xGA per 90 minutes at home, but that drops to 0.94 on the road, the lowest average in the league and the only team under 1.
Nashville does often concede goals, however, as they have kept just two clean sheets on the road in eight matches.Ā But they have also only scored two goals just three times as they struggle to create many chances averaging a very low 0.73 xG per match. Because of that, five of their eight matches have finished Under the total. 2.75 feels just a little too high here, so I will be sprinkling a wee half-unit on the under here. Play good to under 2.5 at +110.
Alright amigos, that does it for me today. Thanks as always for reading, and I hope Iāve got nothing but winners in here for you.
Itās been a pleasure writing to you all again. Iāll talk to you all later today on Twitch at 4:30, and Iāll send out another newsletter at the end of the week.
Hereās to winners and whiners alikeā š„
Best,
8-Bit