My muskrats and mongooses. My horses and hippos.
I hope each and every one of you is having a great Thursday. I know I am! Oh, and thank you as always for supporting me with your clicks.
We’ve got a lot to discuss today, so let’s get right to it.
First— I was at the A’s reverse boycott game on Tuesday!
While the crowd doesn’t look that big here, it filled out later in the game after people were able to finally make their way in. There was a K-Pop concert at the Warriors’ old stadium on the same night, so parking was a nightmare!
It was definitely unlike any sporting event I have ever been to before. Nothing even comes close. So many people were there, and everyone was getting super loud, but it wasn’t about the game at hand at all and the vibes were not high. Strange environment. It was a once-in-a-lifetime evening that I am still processing.
I hope that when the team moves the league makes them leave behind the A’s logo/branding, and MLB puts an expansion “A’s” team in Oakland.
That’s my only hope. My cope dream. Go A’s… 😢
Anyway, this is a gambling newsletter, isn’t it?
Today is in fact a fun day because now that the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup playoffs are over, you guys get to see how I did overall on those sports over the last year!
After having some discussions with some of my IRL friends who are subscribed to this newsletter, I have realized I need to clarify something about these profit charts.
The term “ROI” in sports betting is really a misnomer. A more precise term would be “Rate of Return”. Where it says “ROI” on these charts, that is the percent profit that you would return on average per 100 units wagered. The overall “ROI” can be seen in the upper left, where my net units gained total is listed. Units gained is the real total ROI.
So, for example, if you had tailed my NHL picks for the entire season, you would have returned a total of 11.3%, not 6.88%. However, per 100 units wagered, your return on average would have been 6.88%! Again, “ROI” should really be called “ROR” or “Rate of Return”.
This is pretty confusing honestly. Sorry for not spelling this out for you all earlier.
I have left a small note or two about this distinction in this newsletter in the past, (once in an audio recording!) but units/ROI are very misleading titles, despite being the conventional terms that people in the gambling community use for these metrics.
Now you know!
And now, allow me to spoon-feed you some winning wagers!
Today’s bets
0.75 units - MLB 6/15 5:05pm - Pirates ML @ Cubs (+131)
(Oviedo/Stroman must start)
Yes, Marcus Stroman has been dominant lately. Do I love betting against him? Absolutely not. However, there are some things to consider when looking at his overall performance this year. First— his xERA is 3.74, which is more than a full point better than his actual ERA (2.42). He has also gotten extremely lucky with timely outs this year, as he has managed to strand 80% of runners he has allowed to reach base. He’s walked 7 batters in his last 2 starts. I think Johan Oviedo, the Pirates' starter for tonight, is just as good right now. Oviedo has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 6 starts. Also, Stroman is 0-3 in four career starts against Pittsburgh, and his head-to-head numbers against their hitters are sketchy. I think the Pirates should be an underdog in this game, but barely. My numbers have this at +105, so I’ll be taking a piece of the Bucs this evening in the Windy City.
Take Pirates ML for 0.75u down to +125, and from +124 to +115, keep it to a half-unit. No play at +114 and below.
0.75 units - MLB 6/15 7:10pm - White Sox team total over 3.5 @ Dodgers (-140)
(Cease/Grove must start)
The White Sox have not been tearing it up at the plate, but they did score 8 on a Kershaw start yesterday and Michael Grove is on the hill today. Grove has been awful. He has an 8.28 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, and has allowed 4, 4, 2, 1, and 9 ER his last 5 starts. Ouch! The Dodger bullpen has been uncharacteristically abysmal of late as well. I have the Sox scoring 4.1 here, so 3.5 is a welcome sight. This White Sox team has a good hitting lineup on paper, and it appears to me that they’re coming around now.
Reduce your bet size to 0.5u if this line climbs to 4, and don’t touch it at 4.5.
0.5 units - MLB 6/15 4:10pm - Tigers @ Twins F5 under 4 (-105)
(Boyd/Gray must start)
My old A’s friend Sonny Gray has been fantastic since leaving the Yankees and this might be his best season yet. Matthew Boyd is probably the most reliable SP in the Detroit rotation, which I know isn’t saying much but he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. I like his stuff. I expect the Twins to be a bit sluggish to start the first game at home off a very successful road trip (a well-tracked angle that sharps have employed for many years) and I also expect Gray to hold the Tigers bats down. Would be a little surprised if they even get 1 run in the F5 today.
No play at 3.5 or lower!
0.5 units - MLB 6/15 12:40pm - Phillies @ D-Backs team total over 3.5 (-130)
(Nola/Nelson must start)
Nola sure gets a lot of credit for someone that has a 4.60 ERA. I think he is one of the most overrated pitchers in MLB at the moment. Not only is his ERA bloated, but he also has a career .976 OPS against him by Arizona batters. His low WHIP and Baseball Savant numbers tell me that when he gives up contact it is very hard contact. That won’t play well in the Diamondbacks’ crackerbox stadium. Arizona has a collective .354 wOBA in the last 10 days, one of the best marks in the entire league. I can’t go crazy with this one because I think Nola has positive regression in his future and I think the D-Backs have negative regression in theirs, but I gotta get a piece of what looks like a very suspect line here.
Play good to 4 at -110.
0.5 units - Golf 6/15 1:32pm - Jordan Spieth > Cameron Smith for tourney (-135)
I’m just a guy who knows a guy.
Play good to -145.
Soccer plays for the next 2 days!
1 unit - Euro 2024 Qual. 6/16 11:45am - Northern Ireland @ Denmark -1.5 (-107)
I am buying the dip on Denmark here after they lost a shocking fluke game to Kazakhstan last time out. They looked very good in that game, but then a late penalty got the Kazakhs moving and they completed one of the craziest comebacks I have ever seen. That won’t be happening again now that the Danes are back at home though. Denmark has not lost a home Euro Qualifying game since 2007 and Northern Ireland is straight-up trash. They have lost their last 7 games against top 100 teams, and Denmark is #19. I expect Denmark to come out focused and hungry, they should definitely cover the spread of -1.5 here.
Reduce to a half-unit at -1.75, no play at -2.
1 unit - MLS 6/17 4:30pm - Orlando City @ New England Revolution ML (-114)
As usual for me in MLS, this bet is mostly determined by xG metrics. Orlando is the most over-achieving team in the league this year on the road. My numbers show New England as the far better team, and the international break will also hurt Orlando much more than New England here. Orlando will be without their starting keeper Pedro Gallese, midfielder Wilder Cartagena, and most importantly, their leading goalscorer Facundo Torres. The Revolution will also be without their starting goalie but that is their only meaningful loss. I expect the Revolution to walk all over these guys. An alternate spread of -1.5 at +225 ain’t a bad look either.
Reduce to a half unit at -0.75, no play at -1.
0.5 unit - Euro 2024 Qual. 6/16 11:45am - Turkey @ Latvia over 2.5 (-115)
Latvia has zero points in Euro 2024 qualifiers so far. They will be desperate for a win here at home. Turkey has a great generation of players and big ambitions for this tournament. They will come out aggressive and expect to win. Latvia has been slightly improving offensively as of late, scoring in 12 of L13 matches, but their defense has been bad. Turkey can score 3 on their own, but I think Latvia has a good chance to get 1 goal in this game and help out with that total as well. Turkey matches have also gone over 2.5 goals in 16 of the last 20! These teams met in the World Cup Qualifiers in 2021, and both matches had 3 or more goals. I will be keeping this bet small in case Latvia’s offense drops an egg, but I think this is a quality wager. Play good to -125.
Wait, what? A Canadian Football League play?!
1 unit - CFL 6/18 4:00pm - Tiger-Cats @ Argonauts over 46.5 (-110)
Much like my golf play above… I’m just a guy who knows a guy.
Play good to 47.5, reduce to a half unit at 48, and don’t touch it at 48.5 and higher.
Alright guys, that does it for me today. I hope you have been entertained by what you have read here and that your pockets are filled up by these bets.
Sorry there weren’t any spots that I thought were worth 1 unit or more today! I think my favorite play of the whole bunch is the Denmark -1.5 one.
Enjoy the rest of your day, and I’ll talk to you all again next week.
Best,
8-Bit