Issue 94: Sailing Away

So we may as well gamble!

Sep 22, 2023

Hi everyone! Long time no talk!

Thank you for reading yet another issue of The Chalk & Talk newsletter. I appreciate each and every one of you immensely for your support.

I have been posting less recently because of some family issues I have been dealing with. As you can imagine, family issues > Chalk & Talk issues.

Thanks for understanding!

That said, I am super excited to be writing to you all again and I would like to remind you that my Ohtani card giveaway is still active! For every comment/like you leave on this issue and the last one (limit 1 comment per issue) you will be rewarded with a raffle ticket to win a grade 8 Shohei Ohtani card! Two issues from now, I will announce the winner!

Previously I had said that the giveaway would be happening sooner than that, but that timeline has been extended because…

I am going on a solo trip to England for 2 weeks!

I have dreamt of going on a trip like this to the birthplace of “football” since I was in middle school. It’s finally happening now that I am at the ripe age of 27, and I couldn’t be more excited. I am attending 3 games and staying in hostels the whole time. The 3 games I will be at are:

Stoke City @ Bristol City, 9/30
Port Vale @ Bristol Rovers, 10/3
Sheffield United @ Fulham, 10/7

I will try to make it out to some additional cup games on 9/27 and some other dates as well, but those 3 are set in stone.

I will, of course, send you all an issue while I am overseas, with full details on not only sporting action but also selfies with random people at pubs, and much, much more. Should be a good time. Traditional Spotted Dick and a meat pie, anyone? 😋

Anyway, you’re probably here to see what I’m betting on, not hear about how I’m traveling to distract myself from emotional issues.

But wait! My profit chart!

Okay, fine, here you go. My picks for this weekend!

1.5 units - NFL 9/24 10:00am - Broncos +6.5 @ Dolphins (-105)
I was hoping for +7 here, but based on the way money is affecting the market here I don’t think the books are going to give that key number to me. I think it's more realistic for it to settle at +6, so I'm gonna lock that +6.5 in.
The Broncos could easily be sitting at 2-0 right now, but they're at 0-2, and that's why the spread's at +6.5. Honestly, I think it should be more like +3.5 or +4. I've got a hunch that the Broncos might thrive in the underdog role. They've been the favorites in their first two home games, but now they've got a chance to prove themselves when the odds are against them, as they have often been over the last 9 months.
As for the Dolphins, they're in a bit of a tough spot. They just pulled off a win against the Patriots in prime time (a highly emotional game that they easily could have lost), and they've got a big showdown with Buffalo coming up. So, I'm not sure they're gonna give the Broncos their full attention, and they are on the opposite side of the luck coin of the Broncos when it comes to record. This is a great sell-high spot on Miami and a great buy-low spot on Denver.
Also, it’s going to be important to talk defense here. I've got some doubts about the Dolphins' D. They struggle to put real pressure on, and I've got a feeling Russ might just cook up something special in this game. I’ve got him stashed on the bench in my fantasy league as I think he’s got good upside this year. After last year’s disaster in Denver, who is going to take this man seriously? Me! I buy low, baby! 🤚
Take the Broncos +6.5 for this week’s top play. Sprinkle the ML at +250 if you’re feeling brave, though I will personally be staying off of that. GLHF!
1 unit - MLS 9/23 7:30pm - Rapids @ Timbers -1 (-105)
Portland is on fire right now. They haven't lost in their last five games, winning four and drawing one. They've been consistent in finding the net too, scoring two goals in each of these five matches, although they've managed to keep just one clean sheet. Currently, they're holding the 8th spot in the Western Conference with 39 points, and they're hungry for more. Especially when they're playing on their home turf, where they've historically performed pretty darn well with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses.
Let’s quickly talk xG. At home, Portland has a modest +0.18 xG difference per game. But when you stack that up against Colorado's -1.00 xG difference per game, we're looking at a juicy gap of more than 1 expected goal in favor of Portland.
Colorado, on the other hand, hasn't been having the best time on the road. They've got the second-worst away xG difference per game in MLS. Currently, they're at the bottom of the Western Conference with 22 points, and it's safe to say they're not playoff contenders. Their recent form reflects that too, with just one win in their last nine games, and losing six out of the last seven.
To make matters worse for Colorado, they've only won two out of 14 away matches this season, with the worst away offense in the Conference (just 9 goals), the second worst away defense (conceding a whopping 29), and by far the worst away goal difference (-20). In fact, they've dropped each of their last seven away matches in the MLS, letting in a total of 20 goals and only managing to score four in return. It's no secret that Colorado struggles away from home, and Portland is looking solid at home. This match is a golden opportunity for Portland to pocket an easy three points on their journey to the playoffs. Even if this game was being played at a neutral site, Portland would be the right side, and we now get the added bonus of home-field advantage on top.
So, consider taking Portland -1 here… It feels like a bit of a no-brainer. Portland could very well outclass this Colorado side by two goals or more without breaking a sweat.
1 unit - K-League 9/23 10:00pm - Ulsan Hyundai ML @ Suwon FC (-130)
Ulsan has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, and their lead at the top of the table has shrunk to just six points. They've managed just one victory in their last six league games, and that's made things a lot tighter at the top of the table.
However, it's pretty clear that Ulsan is still the cream of the crop in the league overall. This Sunday, they're up against Suwon FC, who has no wins, two draws, and five losses in their last seven home games.
Ulsan boasts the highest offensive xG rating in the league when playing away this season. On the flip side, Suwon FC not only has the worst home defense, conceding an average of 1.86 goals per game this season, but they also hold the worst defensive xGA rating.
My boys, xG don’t lie. Do I watch Korean soccer? Absolutely not. But I know a xG + form mismatch when I see one. I am happy to pay -130 to back Ulsan here.
0.75 unit - NCAAF 9/23 5:00pm - UNC @ Pitt +7.5 (-114)
Haven’t seen a soul on Pitt, but the money split isn’t dramatic (50% of tickets on UNC, 59% of $ on UNC) and we are getting the best of the number here at 7.5 with the Panthers. This is also a great buy-low, sell-high spot much like the Broncos-Dolphins game I wrote about above. There isn’t as much statistically to back this one up, but I can’t help but put a wee little 3-quarter unit on this bad boy. Let’s cash!

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