Comrades and commodores alike— I welcome you all to today’s edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter.
Thank you once again for faithfully reading Substack’s most chivalrous, luxuriant, and jolly newsletter. Your readership is much appreciated!
While it has been 2 weeks since I last sent a newsletter to you all, those of you who are Substack aficionados and have the app got this Substack note that I sent out a mere six days ago. There were three picks in that bad boy, including a max play, and all three picks won!
The more time I spend on Twitter (or I guess it’s called “X” now?), the more I want to delete the app and just post daily picks on Substack’s Notes feature. I don’t think I can stomach actually doing that for viewership reasons (I don’t think anyone is actually using/reading Notes, and I have a number of people that follow me exclusively on Twitter), but maybe I’ll break sometime in the next few months and move fully to Substack. You guys will just have to wait and see.
Since we all spoke last, some fun things have happened in my life!
While I love Oracle Park, I am a Red Sox fan and I got mercilessly heckled by a group of black-out-drunk college kids behind me. For the entire game.
Still a super fun day though!
The first game of the series is tonight! Click here to follow along!
I am taking a trip to England at the end of September to tour some soccer stadiums in England, so I am brushing up on my lower-league knowledge right now.
Yeah, my tie’s messed up. Who cares!
Another fun update about my life is that I am going to my first-ever professional fighting event! One week from tomorrow, I will be at LFA 165 in Santa Cruz.
I am super excited despite the fact that the Legacy Fighting Alliance is definitely way too obscure to find any betting lines on it. Ya can’t win ‘em all, folks.
Anyway, let’s get into some bets.
Today’s plays
1 unit - MLB 8/10 3:40pm - Zack Littell under 15.5 outs recorded (-155)
Littell has only pitched 6 innings once this season and that was against the Tigers when he completed 6 in an amazing under 80 pitch count. That will not happen today. The Cardinals, and particularly Goldschmidt, hammer Littell regularly and he just is not a pitcher the Rays count on to go deep. They never hesitate to pull him after 70 pitches and asking him to complete 5.1 innings here is not likely. Play good at any price down to -170 as long as you can get under 15.5, but no play at 14.5.
1 unit - MLB 8/10 7:10pm - Ty Blach under 3.5 strikeouts (-170)
Ty Blach is averaging on 12.2 outs per start and only 4.26 Ks per 9 innings the last month. The Dodgers are not a big K team, they strikeouts a little under the MLB average of 8.2. Putting these two factors together and the fact that Blach should get pummeled and chased early. I like the under 3.5 K here at -170 or better. No play at 2.5.
0.5 unit - MLB 8/10 7:10pm - Rockies @ Dodgers over 8.5 (-105)
Both of these teams have had terrible bullpens of late and the Dodgers have an amazing lineup. Blach has a 1.58 WHIP and any pitcher who puts 1.5 batters on base per inning should be in for a long day. The Dodgers should be able to name their score in this one and might even reach this total by themselves. Blach's longest outing this season was 5 innings which he did once, but expect him to get knocked out of this one early. Furthermore, the Rockies are actually scoring as of late. They put up 6 and 7 vs Milwaukee who has much better pitching than LA. I expect this to be a fireworks display of runs and will take over 8.5. Play good to 9 at plus money.
Two College Football futures plays!
1.5 units - NCAAF Future - Clemson to make the playoff (+300)
While Clemson is losing a lot off of their defensive line, they showed us in 2019 that they are a program that has the powerhouse ability to just reload and keep going. This team could be even deeper than the 2018 group that was led by Trevor Lawrence. Cade Klubnik is more than capable of being their best QB since Lawrence, and the team is stacked around him. The Tigers’ offensive line is veteran, they have elite running backs (have you seen Will Shipley’s high school mixtape?), a solid defense, and a schedule that will help them immensely. The schedule needs to be in your favor if you want to make the playoff, and Clemson certainly has that. Their two toughest games (Florida State and Notre Dame), are both at home. Their opponents are strong enough to give them credibility in the eyes of the decision committee, but not strong enough to beat them. They have a great shot to run the table in the ACC, and if they do that, I think they will be in the playoff. This price is a little bit ridiculous IMHO.
0.5 units - NCAAF Future - Clemson to win the National Championship (+1600)
This is the longest odds bet in the history of this newsletter. Expect me to recommend hedging it should Clemson end up against Georgia in the National Championship though, as I do think Georgia will repeat as champions. I just can’t back the Bulldogs at +250.
(See above for Clemson analysis)
Bonus pick!
Unofficial play - NFL 8/10 7:00pm - Vikings @ Seahawks under 35 (-110)
This is just for you degens that want something to bet for the NFL preseason. I am not going to be putting money on this, but I think it’s a decent look. These two teams have very bland preseason offenses, defensive players that need to prove themselves and will be trying hard, and offenses with established QBs. I doubt either side will be taking chances with their QBs. Expect to see Cousins and Smith in street clothes, and not many points getting scored.
Alright guys, that does it for me today.
Thanks as always for reading, and I’ll try to write to you all again next week!
Until then, please gamble responsibly, stay safe, and enjoy the games, whether or not you have money on them. Don’t forget that we all got into sports without money on the line in the first place! 😉
Adios,
8-Bit