What up lovers and landlubbers?!
I come to you all today in great spirits. In my softball league last night I went 4 for 5 and made a sprinting, over-the-shoulder catch. My team, the Beavers, won.
Life is good.
However last week, the day after my most recent, highly successful newsletter was released, the boys and I were in Tahoe and decided to cross the state border into Nevada to hammer Giants -1.5 at the local William Hill sportsbook.
Let’s just say that didn’t work out for us very well.
However, highs and lows don’t affect me too much, seeing as I am just an 8-Bit Bettor. I am an emotionless video game character. A sportsbook killer. A money-grubbing beast!
And yes, the bachelor party was super fun, thanks for asking!
Let’s get right into the profit chart.
Yeah, things haven’t been great over the last few weeks. Definitely been losing some coin. But if I can go on a cold streak and still be up 45 units and have a ROI of 3.29% per 100 units wagered… It’s time for you to buy the dip.
Come gentlemen, buy the dip with me.
Today’s plays
1 unit - Leagues Cup 7/27 7:00pm - Club America -0.5 @ St. Louis City (+122)
The hosts have had a largely solid MLS campaign (xG shows they’ve been one of the luckiest teams in the league) but lost their opening Leagues Cup game on Monday. St. Louis lost 2-1 to Columbus Crew, finding themselves two goals down at the half-hour mark before halving the deficit late on, thanks to an own goal.
St. Louis is now rock-bottom in their group with no points, another defeat will mark the end of their Leagues Cup campaign.
On the other side, we have Club America. They’ve had mixed results recently but they picked up their first league win of the season last time out, beating Puebla 3-0, with three different players, including former Villarreal man Leonardo Suarez, scoring in a total team effort. St. Louis City has lost just one of their last seven home games, but America's latest result snapped a four-game winless streak. They're unbeaten on the road this year and should come out on top against a team that shows as overrated in advanced metrics. Sprinkle the exact final score of 2-1 in favor of América if you’re feeling dangerous.
Today’s top play… Club America minus the half goal. Play good to +110, reduce to a half unit down to +100.
0.75 unit - MLB 7/27 4:10pm - Josiah Gray over 15.5 outs recorded (-110)
I am expanding my range and taking some props today in MLB because of the limited number of games. I’m deep in value-hunting mode today. For the Nationals to win this game, they’ve got to know that Gray needs to get into the sixth inning. He has been going long into games (like the game the boys and I lost betting against him in 😔) and averages 17 outs per outing. The Mets are helping pitchers too, adding 0.7 outs to their opposing pitchers’ average outing. Take Gray to get one out in the 6th inning here. Play good to -135. Half unit to -145, no play below there.
0.5 unit - MLB 7/27 5:10pm - Dylan Cease under 17.5 outs recorded (+130)
Cease averages 16.4 outs per outing and surprisingly, because the Guardians are such a disciplined hitting team, they chase pitchers 0.6 outs less than their average. While I like Cease a lot, I think getting this at such a healthy +130 price is too good to not throw a half-unit on it. Play good to +120, no play below there.
A NFL Week 1 play!
1 unit - NFL 9/10 10:00am - Texans @ Ravens -9.5 (-108)
There are only a few reasons anyone should bet on an NFL game this early, but the main reason is if you believe the line will change. Harbaugh and his teams over the years have been the best bet during the preseason, and it just so happens that the preseason drive to win translates right into week 1 of regular season action. Since 2008, Baltimore is 6-0 SU/ATS in week one as a home fave of more than -1; the average line was -6.9, with the Ravens winning by an average of 25.83 points per game. Houston, on the other hand, is quite the opposite. The Texans are 1-5 SU/ATS on the road in week 1 in their last six in this situation. They’ve got a lot of new, young players and are in the midst of a massive rebuild. Baltimore is a dangerous team with plenty of weapons that the Texans cannot compete with. Although underdogs seem to be a good bet in week 1, this is a favorite you should certainly have your money on. Play good to -10, and just a half unit play up to -11.
What’s this? A 6-dollar, 6-leg demon play for the people?!
Tail with caution, this is an unofficial play.
Alright guys, that does it for me today.
Not a lot to bet on today, but I hope you’re satisfied with what you’ve read here.
Hope everyone has a great Thursday and an even better Friday/weekend! As always, please gamble responsibly, stay safe, and enjoy the games.
Talk to you all again next week!
Adios,
8-Bit
P.S.
Get ready for some College Football futures plays 😉