What up cats and kittens.
Hope everyone is having a great Friday!
I am headed to my friend’s bachelor party in a sec here so I gotta make this quick, but I wanted to be sure to get an issue of winning bets out to you guys for the weekend since I’ve been slipping on updating the newsletter recently.
The boys and I are headed up to Tahoe for the weekend, and luckily for me (absolutely not a coincidence, seeing as I booked the Airbnb we are staying at) there is a sportsbook right on the other side of the state line, about 10 minutes from where we’re staying.
Tonight, it’s a classy steakhouse dinner, tomorrow, it’s a classic beach day (sportsbook visit in the morning), Sunday, it’s time to come home.
And of course all the while it’s spooky boy hydration hours, because of the change in altitude. Health is wealth, boys.
Alright, I gotta hurry the heck up here.
Bang, profit chart.
Can’t lie, the last week or so hasn’t been too hot.
So let’s change that trajectory now.
Today’s plays
2 units - MLB 7/21 5:10pm - Braves ML @ Brewers (-112)
That’s right mfs, we are going with a full TWO-UNIT MEGA MAX play to kick off today’s issue. Getting the Braves at anything -130 or better is insane value. We get a good number here because Soroka is on the mound. He had a rough start to the season but in July he’s allowed only 2ER in 7.2 IP. He has 7K and 3BB in those innings. He is returning to his previous dominant form. He actually does not need to dominate here, but Milwaukee ranks toward the bottom in every hitting category out there. Peralta is 6-7 with a 4.41 ERA this season. That is not great at all. Against a top 3 lineup like the Braves, I think he gets rocked. He does have a great history against Braves batters, but this season is different. The Braves are going to win the World Series IMO. The Braves rank top 5 in every hitting category this season, and they have a 30% higher BA than the Brewers, 130 more runs, 130 more hits, 77 more home runs, and 120 points better SLG.
Both teams have solid bullpens but the lineup discrepancy is huge and in the end, that should be the difference here. Take the Braves on the money line -135 or better for a Mega Max Whale Nuke sizing. Reduce by a half unit for every 10 cents of juice you have to pay below there. This is the 8-Bit Bettor Brinks Truck play or the Mega Max Whale Nuke, depending on what you’d prefer to call it. Either is fitting.
Just leave a comment below to let me know that you’re tailing this spicy play.
1.5 units - MLB 7/21 4:10pm - Mets @ Red Sox ML (-110)
(Senga/Crawford must start)
I know some will point to Kutter Crawford’s poor numbers so far at Fenway this season, but he’s a guy I’m looking to mostly back in the second half as he’s striking out almost one batter per inning. Coming out of the All-Star break, Crawford tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball at Wrigley Field (Sox won 11-5) with nine strikeouts. In addition to rest, home-field advantage, and the better offense, Boston also has the bullpen edge here. I see a pretty easy win for them tonight. Take Boston ML down to -120 for 1.5u, and reduce by a half unit for every 10 cents of juice you have to pay below there.
1.25 units - MLB 7/21 6:40pm - Astros @ Athletics over 7.5 (+100)
I have this at 7.9 which is just over the 7.5 total. Yes, these two SPs are good but that is only the start of the game. The A's are hitting much better than their record and have an awful bullpen. The Astros are a great power lineup and could reach this total by themselves. Sears gets far too much credit and does not last long into games. The A's bullpen is last in MLB in ERA and if Sears comes out early this total should be easy to reach, and the A’s offense has made a decent account of itself recently. Play good to over 8, go with 0.75u if it gets to 8.5, and no play at 9 or higher, though it won’t reach that.
1 unit - MLB 7/21 3:40pm - Padres F5 ML @ Tigers (-125)
(Lugo/Olson must start)
Seth Lugo is coming off a start in which he allowed 5 runs and 2 homers in 5.1 innings in Philadelphia. Â So, this is a bounce-back spot for Lugo and you probably know how much I like backing good pitchers in bounce-back situations. Â And Lugo has bounced back in a huge way this season. Â Lugo had three other starts this season in which he allowed 3 or more runs and in the starts that immediately followed he produced a 1.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
On the other side, Reese Olson has been better on the road. Â His Tigers are also 0-6 this season off back-to-back games in which they scored and allowed 3 or fewer runs. I don't know if the Padres end up winning this game, but I like Lugo's chances of out-pitching Olson through 5 innings. Â I'll be shocked if the Padres are losing after 5 frames. Play good to -140, half unit to -150, no play below -150.
0.5 unit - MLB 7/21 3:40pm - Orioles @ Rays over 8 (-110)
This is a play based on the fact that these are two good lineups with no-so-great bullpens, and yesterday’s game almost reached this total with pretty bad luck on balls in play. Gotta sprinkle a half unit here. Play good to -120.
Two Swedish soccer league plays for Sunday/Monday!
1 unit - Allsvenskan 7/23 8:30am - Halmstad @ Göteborg -0.25 (-108)
Simple shit here guys. Goteborg has been much better than Halmstad this season, with the home side currently ranking 3rd overall in defensive xGA this year. Halmstad however, ranks last, both overall and on the road in that same category, and owns a far inferior offensive xG rating to Goteborg also based on home/road form splits this season. Love laying the quarter goal here for only -108. The ML at +120 is nice too. Play good to -120, reduce to a half unit at -0.5 at -110.
0.5 unit - Allsvenskan 7/24 10:00am - Mjällby @ Sirius FK -0.25 (-105)
Sirius is one of the hottest teams in the Allsvenskan right now, getting 1.80 PPG on average across their last five starts, but even more impressively, are the only team in the league currently to register three shutouts across their last five games overall, including scoring in four of those five matchups as well. They face a Mjallby team here that has the league's 2nd lowest offensive xG rating away from home this year, as well as netting the joint fewest number of goals also. Worth a half-unit sprinkle down to -115 IMO.
Alright guys I gotta get tf outta here. Time to take care of some work stuff, pick up the boys, and whip it up to Tahoe.
And to the William Hill sportsbook in north Tahoe…
I’m coming.
Your’s truly,
8-Bit