My friends, my animals, my degens.
Welcome back to another edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter. It is a pleasure to have the privilege of your readership on this fine weekend day.
I am in great spirits as I write to you now, buzzing off of a cup of delicious coffee, listening to the Verdanturf Town theme song from Pokémon Emerald (the nostalgia and relaxation, oh my!), and feeling fresh off of a great night’s sleep.
I’ve got a few updates for you all this morning, all of which I know you will be supremely interested in.
First— I went to a Pecos League opening day game last night!
As some of you may already know, I work for the San Rafael Pacifics, and last night I was at the front entrance checking tickets and greeting everyone for the season’s first game. It was SO much fun.
I am supremely energized by high-speed, face-to-face human interactions like the ones I had last night, so my mental state is in peak condition right now. I haven’t been grooving like this since I worked in the food service industry! But it’s actually even better now because I get to talk to people about baseball and not rice bowls! Sometimes I simply cannot believe how great my life is.
AND the Pacifics won, 17-4! Now that’s a great way to get the season started!
Also, shout out to my dad, because he volunteered to man the beer stand while I covered tickets at the front of the stadium. It’s all hands on deck for the Pecos League, guys. Indy ball for life!
The last thing I will say about this is, if you love lower league baseball and have not watched the Pecos League documentary, click here. Watching this thing is a must for anyone who loves minor league/independent league baseball. Seriously, it’s one of the best pieces of media I have ever consumed, and you can watch it for free if you sign up for a free trial of the streaming service it’s on, Vudu TV. I guarantee even non-baseball fans will love it (my mom loved it!) because the editing is downright incredible.
Alright, next order of business.
I have a question for you guys!
(This would happen right before the tournament begins, in early July)
I ask this because as I have been looking at the Women’s World Cup futures market, a few things have come to mind.
How much money can books have possibly taken on this event? IMO, it can’t be that much. And secondly, how much knowledge can these bookmakers possibly have about women’s international soccer? I can’t imagine they’re very sharp in this department. But I could be with a week or two of research! It appears to me that this market must be ripe with inefficiencies.
I have a feeling I could uncover some serious value here. For example, it sure seems strange that China’s team is ranked #13 in FIFA’s rankings, but is +20000 to win the tournament at Bovada. It just ssstinks of bad bookmaking.
Anyway, please respond to the poll, and I’ll weigh my options as the votes roll in. Thanks.
Okay, last thing before we get into today’s plays.
You know what time it is! Profit chart time!
At a certain point guys, my numbers just speak for themselves. I will not elaborate on what you see here today, except for with this emoji: 💰.
Let’s keep rolling.
Today’s plays
1 unit - MLB 5/27 1:05pm - Rangers @ Orioles ML (-107)
(Heaney/Kremer must start)
Baltimore is 5-0 this season in games off of a loss as a favorite of -115 or greater. Not only that, but they got killed by this Rangers team yesterday, and one thing I have seen a lot of this year is teams looking super flat on offense after having a big day at the plate the day before. The Brewers also fit this profile today though I will not be playing them.
Also, Dean Kremer has allowed one run or less in 3 of his last 4 starts! Plus, if you exclude games where they were underdogs of +160 or higher, the Orioles are 12-3 vs lefty starters straight up this season. I like that a lot! 💰
Play Baltimore for 1u up to -120, 0.75u from -121 to -130, and 0.5u down to -140.
1 unit - MLS 5/27 4:30pm - Atlanta United @ Orlando United over 2.5 (-122)
Atlanta United is an offensive juggernaut. I trust that they can keep up their end of the bargain for this bet. The question mark here is Orlando. Orlando was unable to get their offense going early this season as they scored just three goals in their first four matches and never more than one in any match. However, since then, they have scored 14 goals in nine matches with five matches scoring at least two goals.
The xG numbers show a similar trend for Orlando as they averaged 0.88 per 90 minutes over their first four matches which has now increased to 1.20 per match since. Certainly not on the level of Atlanta’s offense, but a significant improvement, nonetheless. Now as they face one of the league’s leakiest away defenses, they should find plenty of chances to score in this match. Atlanta has allowed an average of 1.55 xGA per match over their last six and has scored in every match this season. Take the over. Play good up to 2.75.
0.75 unit - NBA 5/27 5:30pm - Celtics @ Heat 1H over 102 (-110)
Yes, both teams have now shown that they can really play defense. Both can really score too though, and all of the action in this game has been on the under so far, giving us a great number to bet the over with here. The Celtics may have won with defense the last couple of games but they still like to push the pace. Keep in mind that the last game had an O/U line of 109 (or 108.5) for the first half. That's a considerable difference. The teams finished with 105 which stayed below that bigger number but would have gone over this smaller one. The previous game entered the break at 106. Take the 1H over tonight.
Reduce to a half unit at 102.5/103, and don’t play it at all if it somehow gets over 103.
0.75 unit - MLB 5/27 1:10pm - Dodgers @ Rays NRFI (-125)
(Kershaw/Glasnow must start)
You all probably know this, but NRFI = No Run First Inning. While I may be taking an over in this same game in the play below, these are two elite starters who almost always start well. I have this priced at -145 so -125 is a welcome sight. This is just the second first-inning prop I have ever given out here, but I think it’s a good one. Play good for 0.75u to -130, and 0.5u to -135. We tread lightly.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/27 1:10pm - Dodgers @ Rays team total over 3.5 (-125)
(Kershaw/Glasnow must start)
The Rays are the best offensive team in MLB and despite Kershaw having a great season, I do not see him lasting much more than 5 innings, again eating into the LA bullpen. Play good to -130.
Two bonus plays! One for today and one for tomorrow!
1.5 units - Boxing 5/27 2:00pm - Wood vs. Lara under 8.5 rounds (-125)
Guys, I’m not gonna pretend like I know shit about boxing. A little bird told me about this one. I’m just a guy who knows a guy. Or at the very least, a guy who knows a bird. Let’s cash!
1 unit - La Liga 5/28 10:00am - Espanyol @ Valencia BTTS YES (-132)
Just to be clear in case anyone doesn’t know: BTTS = Both Teams To Score.
Context is super key for this play.
Valencia are in good shape in the relegation battle, though they are still only 2 points clear of the first relegation spot. Espanyol on the other hand is in 19th with 35 points, 3 points behind safety. Valencia would be sorta okay with a draw here, but Espanyol definitely wouldn't. Espanyol needs the full 3 points, so they will go all in here. They can't play defense. They will do what they do best— attack! Sounds like a great recipe for both teams to score here, so let’s bet on it! Reduce by 0.25u for every 10 cents of juice you have to pay here.
Before I sign off, I need to point out that I dropped not one but two 1.5u plays on Twitter this morning due to the fact that those games were starting too soon for release in the newsletter. And it looks like both of them are going to hit!
If you do not want to miss out on any plays I release, please follow me over there on the bird app by clicking here! Not that I haven’t told you guys this 100+ times already, but ah, such is life. Love y’all.
Ok, that officially does it for me today. I’ll write to you all again on Monday!
I hope your weekends are going well and continue to go well, and that I can sweep these bets for you today. Let’s have a fun, safe, and profitable weekend. 🍻
Adios everyone,
8-Bit