Good afternoon peacocks and pigeons!
Welcome back once again to Substack’s most infallible, immutable, and intimate gambling newsletter.
I’ve got 3 things to get to today before my bets. A congratulation, a complaint, and a brag.
First thing’s first today— I’ve someone to congratulate!
To our raffle winner Milk; congratulations on winning the Aaron Rodgers rookie card giveaway!
Now that right there is a happy customer! Be on the lookout for the next card giveaway guys, these things are legit as hell.
I might be a starving artist on a small blog budget, but when I say I’m doing a giveaway, I am not playing around! We really do this! 😮💨
Alright, now it’s time to complain.
The NFL announced that one of its playoff games for next year’s playoffs will be streamed exclusively on Peacock.
What the hell? So now there’s just going to be one playoff game that is going to be super hard to find a stream for and I definitely won’t be able to stream it on my TV. Sick.
I remember when they did this for opening day last year with the Chiefs/Chargers game on Amazon Prime. My illegal stream was so shit during that game that I just stopped watching. To have this happen in the playoffs is unthinkable! First-world rage, engage!
Maybe we can do a Chalk & Talk subscriber-base boycott of that game. That’ll show Roger Goodell who’s boss.
Ok, now it’s time for my brag.
Guys, check out my profit chart.
Shit has been going so well for me recently that I bought my girlfriend a rolling suitcase and a travel bag for our trip to Vegas this July. We bad and boujee out here!
Are you tryna get bad and boujee too?
Then I suggest tailing these picks!
Today’s plays
1.5 units - MLB 5/20 7:10pm - Red Sox team total over 3.5 @ Padres (-117)
Musgrove has a 6+ ERA and a 1.63 WHIP, not to mention a .933 OPS against vs the Red Sox, who are red hot right now. I cashed a 1.5 unit play taking their team total over yesterday as well. I would take the Red Sox over 3.5 against Nolan Ryan, let alone a washed-up Musgrove. Play good to plus money at 4.
1.5 units - MLB 5/20 1:10pm - Brewers team total over 3 @ Rays (-125)
My numbers have the Brewers scoring 3.7 here. The Rays bullpen has been terrible and Eflin has allowed an OPS of over 1.000 the Brewers batters in his career. This is a good spot to tell high on a Rays team that every bettor on planet Earth wants to back. Reduce to 1 unit if this jumps up to 3.5.
1 unit - Ligue 1 5/20 12:00pm - Jonathan David Anytime Goalscorer (+130)
Lille's Canadian legend Jonathan David has scored in each of Lille's last two home matches against Marseille and is in great form right now. He is currently sitting at 21 goals, 5 behind world-class baller Kylian Mbappé, and with 3 more matches to go, David will still have that extra motivation to become Ligue 1's top scorer. I don’t think he’ll get there, but I think he will definitely try his best.
Picking a winning Anytime Goalscorer prop is not easy, but Marseille only have 2 shutouts in their last 13 matches and David will get his fair share of chances in this game. I think +130 is a great price to back him to put one of those chances away. Reduce your bet size to 0.75 at +120, and 0.5 at +110. No play below +100.
0.75 units - MLB 5/20 1:05pm - Rockies @ Rangers ML (-185)
(Freeland/Gray must start)
Freeland has been shelled in his career vs this lineup and the Rangers have the much better lineup in this matchup. They are super hot right now. The bullpen is a concern for Texas so I’m not going to go for a full unit here but a smaller play is necessary for sure. Reduce bet size to 0.5u at -195, and don’t bet this if it gets below -205.
And two plays for tomorrow!
1.5 units - NBA 5/21 5:30pm - Celtics ML @ Heat (-150)
It's hard not to like the Heat. Butler continues to lead by example. Complemented by double-double machine Bam Adebayo, the NBA equivalent of the Florida Panthers has proven to be tough to beat. That said, I'm not writing the Celtics off yet. Last year’s Eastern Conference champions, with the dynamic duo of Tatum and Brown, supported by arguably the stronger supporting cast, will not go down without a fight. The Celtics have shown that they can win on the road all season and that's continued in these playoffs, despite being bad at home. They've won four of their past five road games, the lone loss coming by a single point. With the Heat just 2-8 SU the past 10 times that they were off three straight wins, look for the Celtics to get back in the series as they bounce back and improve to 60-27 as money-line favorites. Play good to -165, reduce by a half unit for every 10 cents of juice below there.
1 units - Serie A 5/21 11:45am - Lazio @ Udinese +0.5 (-120)
If they win we win, and if they draw, we win. This shit’s free, guys. Udinese hasn't lost in the league at home since mid-January, and that was a 2-1 loss against Bologna, a game Udinese should have won considering the fast start that got them way ahead in xG. They also rank top four in both offensive xG and expected points at home since January 1st as well, so they should provide a serious test to a Lazio team tomorrow that has lost back-to-back games away from home heading into this one. Take Udinese +0.5 (aka Double Chance) up to -130 for a unit. Reduce to a half unit if you have to take them +0.0 (aka Draw No Bet).
One last thing— don’t forget to follow me on Twitter!
There was one play that I released on there this morning (click here to check it out) that started too early to put in the newsletter. And it looks like it’s about to cash!
Alright guys, that does it for your favorite digital gambler today. I am now off to coach my little league team and almost certainly lose. But I will not be losing on the gambling floor, that is for sure!
Cash those tickets, have an amazing weekend, and stay safe out there! And remember, NO PARLAYS. Straight bet these books to death for me!
Love y’all,
8-Bit