Good morrow to you, quails and quaaludes!
Welcome to another delightful, scrumptious, mouthwatering edition of The Chalk & Talk newsletter. It’s a pleasure to have you here with me, and as always, thank you for giving the gift of web traffic to your favorite starving artist.
Well, I may be starving for employment at the moment, but the sportsbooks have been paying the bills for me recently!
The only direction is up, fellas, the only direction is up.
My luck has been great with some other things aside from betting too!
As some of you may know, I am an Oakland A’s fan, and while it has not been a fun year to be an A’s fan, when I have been at the ballpark things have been fantastic. They are 3-0 when I am in attendance!
I went to opening day at the Coliseum, and the A’s beat the Angels 2-1 in a game where Ohtani started, fresh off his epic World Baseball Classic performance.
Then I went to see the A’s face Shane Bieber and the Guardians on April 4th, and the A’s won on a walk-off single by Tony Kemp! Another ace faced, another monster slain!
And then, very recently, on 5/12, I went to see the A’s face Martín Pérez and the Rangers. They won again, this time on a walk-off HR by Brent Rooker in the 10th inning!
So, seeing that the A’s record is 9-34 and that they are 3-0 when I am in the building, I have been to one-third of their wins this year. Pretty crazy. I don’t think I’ve paid over $20 for a ticket any of those times either, and I’ve sat in the lower bowl very close to the field each time.
I bring this up primarily because it’s just crazy and I thought you guys would appreciate reading about this, but also, I am going to the A’s game tonight against Arizona. Does that mean that you should risk maximum units on A’s ML tonight?
Absolutely not, but let’s just say… It’s a factor.
Allow me to explain.
Today’s plays
1 unit - MLB 5/16 5:40pm - Reds @ Rockies over 12.5 (-110)
(Williamson/Anderson must start)
We've got two AAA-level pitchers facing each other at Coors Field. What could possibly go wrong?!
Yesterday, neither team’s starting pitcher made it through five innings, and there were 17 total runs. That means both bullpens will have to dig deep tonight should the game take that same pace, and they may not be prepared to do so. I’m expecting a similar total score tonight, meaning that 12.5 is much too low. Play good to 13 at -110.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/16 6:40pm - Esteury Ruiz over 1.5 total bases (+150)
Okay, am I betting this because I know I am going to be at the game? No, but it’s a factor. The A’s play better when I’m there! That has been proven.
Ok, all jokes aside, I do like this play for legitimate reasons. Ruiz’s season numbers are excellent, but he has not been good in the last week, so I think that’s why we are getting +150 here. However, the D-Backs starter Tommy Henry is a young lefty who does not strike out many batters, giving the speedy Ruiz a much-improved chance for infield singles. He also throws his fastball 50% of the time and only throws it 91 MPH on average, which is music to the ears of Ruiz, who has a .351 AVG against fastballs this season. I am going to tread lightly because of Ruiz’s recent run of form, but +150 is too good to pass up. Play good to +135.
(Please note that total bases can only come from hits, walks do not count)
0.5 unit - MLB 5/16 6:40pm - Royals @ Padres -1.5 (+102)
(Singer/Lugo must start)
San Diego should be able to take advantage of the huge lineup and SP advantages in this one. They usually rack up the non-division wins and should have no problem doing it here too against Singer and his 7+ ERA. Play good to -110.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/16 6:40pm - Royals @ Padres F5 under 4.5 (-110)
(Singer/Lugo must start)
San Diego’s Seth Lugo has allowed a grand total of 14 runs in his first seven starts, he’s been consistently good despite not being a household name. KC’s Brady Singer is coming off a six-inning, one-run gem as he finally rounds into form after a rough April. Some red flags here but I think it’s worth a sprinkle. Play good to under 4 at -110.
Three plays for tomorrow!
1 unit - NBA 5/17 5:30pm - Heat @ Celtics 1H under 108 (-110)
The Heat are off a 96-92 win over NY. They've seen the “under” go 13-5 after scoring 100 or less this season. The Celtics, who held Philly to 86 and 88 points the last two games, have seen the “under” go 27-13-3 the past 43 times that they played with two day's rest in between games, 9-4-2 the past 15. Look for the stingy defense from the last round to carry over into the first half of this one. Play good at 107 or better.
1 unit - MLS 5/17 5:30pm - Inter Miami @ Nashville SC -0.75 (-120)
Nashville is allowing 0.93 xGA per 90 minutes, one of only three MLS teams allowing less than 1.0 per match. Their seven goals conceded leads the league.
Miami is coming in on a three-game win streak beating Columbus, Atlanta and New England but in those three games, they still averaged a negative net xG over that 3 game span. These non-representative results are giving us a great price to bet against them. I don’t see Miami getting anything here traveling on short rest to one of the best defenses in the league. Play good to -1 at even money.
1 unit - UEFA CL 5/17 12:00pm - Real Madrid @ Manchester City ML (-163)
City is currently -340 to advance, depending on the book. Those odds haven’t changed significantly since the 1-1 draw in the first leg. What the oddsmakers are saying here is that they are pretty confident that City is going to move on. So, unless you feel super confident that Real Madrid is going to send this into added time, this is a bet worth making IMHO. When City hosted Bayern Munich in the last round, their betting odds closed in a similar price range. Everyone on Twitter thought that was crazy as mega max whale plays came in on Munich, and then City won 3-0. I know Real Madrid scored first in that first leg and had six of the first eight shots on goal in the second half, but it was City that actually controlled possession for most of the first half (68%) and I thought they were the better team over the course of the match. Plus, xG agrees with me. Real Madrid can’t keep pulling off insane results against better opposition. I say their run stops here. Play good to -185.
Alright folks, I gotta run, and you gotta get these bets down.
It’s a good day for a good day, so let’s do this shit!
Also, please remember to gamble responsibly. If you don’t the gambling gods will punish you, I promise.
Talk to you all again on Friday,
8-Bit
Great work as always my brotha!