Good afternoon, cats and kittens.
Today I come to you all with a somewhat heavy heart. Not too heavy, but a bit heavier than usual.
The first reason why this is? Bovada is giving me trouble again.
If only they knew that I had just finished singing their praises in The Chalk & Talk newsletter! They got spot #2 in my sportsbook rankings!
I think this horrible act drops them to #3 or #4.
They did let me know that they were limiting me one other time, last Augustā¦
But I never ran into that limit. Hopefully I wonāt run into the new one either!
Itās funny, both times they have ālimitedā me, it was after I went on a heater betting Esports. Seems like theyāre a little self-conscious about their League Of Legends lines. Research shows that they may be as soft as Charmin! š§»
It also seems like opportunity may be knocking for anyone who is interested in becoming an Esports sharp. I can think of a few of my subscribers who have the potential to pull off such a feat! š
My heart is also literally heavy because my doctor told me 2 weeks ago that I have high cholesterol. Looks like Iāve got a lot of kale salads and plain oatmeal in my future, boys. Gotta keep those arteries flexible and ready for anything! Lord knows the life of a bettor is full of heart-straining moments!
And lastly, I write to you all with a heavy heart because I have decided to quit my job. After doing this shit for a little over 2 years it has become very apparent that my personality does not fit with the all-consuming nature of the field I am in.
So, therefore, Iām out.
I honestly just wanna work at a coffee shop or a movie theater or something. Something chill that will pay the bills. Iām not really that interested in making a bunch of money. Give me some bum ass 9-5 where I can talk to random people about random shit on the clock. That sounds amazing.
Anyway.
Letās look at that classy, classic, compelling profit chart!
Yesterday, I released the biggest play I have ever released in my history of being the 8-Bit Bettor.
It was Celtics ML (-131) for 4 units.
And, of course, it cashed! Hence the uptick at the end of the graph! š
In the first half it looked like it was going to be easy cash, and while Boston did end up winning by 9, the fourth quarter was pretty damn sweaty. Highlights from the sweatiest point on? Click here.
That š° will make my heart a little lighter. Going to have plenty of money for organic health food now!
Now, letās get down to business. Is your sports betting heart in need of a triple bypass?
Allow me to be your surgeon.
Todayās plays
1 unit - MLB 5/12 5:10pm - Cubs ML @ Twins (+143)
(ACTION)
Drew Smyly has been a big surprise for the Cubs. The Twins have simply not delivered much offense against lefties and Sonny Gray is a serious regression candidate. Good sized edge with the bats for the road team and I have Gray and Smyly pretty evenly matched on the mound when it comes right down to it. Plus 143 is a pretty outrageous price to be getting here.
Play the Cubs ML for 1 unit down to +130. Decrease by a quarter unit for every 10 cents of juice below there.
1 unit - MLB 5/12 7:10pm - Padres @ Dodgers YRFI (-115)
(ACTION)
For those of you who may not know: YRFI stands for Yes Run First Inning. We are betting that there will be a run in the first inning of this game. Either team can score it.
I have never released a YRFI/NRFI on this newsletter before, but I think today is absolutely the day for it. Snell and May have both been okay, but these two lineups have major threats in them from top to bottom. No lineups out yet, but the Dodgers had yesterday off so I would imagine their top 3 would be Betts/Freeman/Smith, while the Padres go with Tatis/Cronenworth/Machado. Padres are less predictable because of having played in Minnesota last night but I think we can expect Tatis and Machado for sure. No matter how it shakes out, I think this is worth a unit.
Play for 1u down to -125, 0.75u to -130, 0.5u to -135.
1 unit - MLB 5/12 6:40pm - Rangers ML @ Athletics (-159)
(Perez and Waldichuk must start)
Perez has been great this season. And looking at every baseball category in existence, the Rangers are better than the A's. They have almost 100 more runs, almost 4 runs better in ERA and any other measurable you want to use. The Rangers are also a good road team and get 9 innings of full ABs against a pitching staff with a collective 7.14 ERA. Even the pitcher's history favors the Rangers. The A's can actually hit well but that one shining light will not be enough here, especially against Perez.
Take the Rangers for 1u down to -170, 0.75u to -180, and 0.5u to -190.
0.75 unit - MLB 5/12 4:10pm - Angels ML @ Guardians (+120)
(Anderson must start)
You're getting Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Co. at an attractive underdog price against someone making his fourth career MLB start. Bet it.
Good to +110. Only put a half unit on this between +110 and +100. No play at non-underdog pricing.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/12 5:40pm - Phillies @ Rockies ML (+116)
(Walker and Gomber must start)
As I have mentioned a number of times in writing, on Twitter, and on Twitch, the Phillies are a bet-against team for me. Tajuan Walker has a 6.75 ERA on the highway this season and the Phillies have won only seven of their 19 previous road games.Ā Meanwhile, the Rockies are playing their best baseball of the year! They are 4-1 in their last five and 8-2 in their last 10.Ā
Austin Gomber got lit up in each of his first four outings this season.Ā But his last three have been absolute gems: 17 innings of work, three runs allowed, and three Rockies victories; all by multi-run margins. Heās a bet-on pitcher right now as a result of highly misleading season-long stats. That said, the Rockies are still utter shit, so donāt go crazy with this bet. Just a sprinkle.
Play good to +110, no play below there.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/12 4:05pm - Pirates @ Orioles ML (-146)
(Oviedo and Bradish must start)
The Orioles have a big bullpen and lineup advantage here. There are a few red flags here but I think itās still worth a wee half-unit.
Play good to -155.
0.5 unit - MLB 5/12 4:07pm - Braves ML @ Blue Jays (-154)
These teams are about as equal as it gets, but the Braves have a giant advantage in the SP department tonight. I canāt leave this alone. Gotta sprinkle.
Play good to -165.
Soccer plays for the weekend! Oh, and the first one is a futures bet!
1.25 units - Superligaen Future - FC Copenhagen to win the league (+122)
This is a pure xG/narrative play.
FC Copenhagen, aka FC KĆøbenhavn, dominates Superligaen (the national league of Denmark, duh) year in and year out. But this year they find themselves 1 point behind FC Nordsjaelland with 5 games left. However, their net xG is WAY better than Nordās, and I think they will overtake them to win their 3rd Superligaen title in 4 seasons. Please note that I released this play on Twitter 2 days ago, and the price has since moved. Bovada now has this at +100 and BetOnline has it at +110.
If you can get the +110, go with 1.25u, but if you can only get +100 keep it to 1u.
1 unit - La Liga 5/13 12:00pm - Getafe @ Real Madrid under 2.5 (-114)
Real Madrid has much bigger fish to fry in the Champions League. I doubt their stars will all play in this game, and the guys that are on the field will no doubt be told to keep it chill. Getafe canāt score for shit.
Take the under down to u2.25 at -115.
1 unit - Bundesliga 5/14 6:30am - Bayer Leverkusen @ VfB Stuttgart DNB (-120)
Leverkusen has overperformed their net xG, and Stuttgart has underperformed theirs. Stuttgart has to fight because they are near the relegation zone, so we know they will be motivated, especially in front of their home crowd. They have been much better on xG at home this year too. I am surprised to see that I can get them at a pick āem line here.
Take them draw-no-bet down to -130 for 1 unit, and stay off this play if you have to lay a quarter goal.
Alright guys, that does it for me today.
Hope you all have an enjoyable afternoon and a great weekend as well. Hope your hearts are light and full of joy! Hopefully this weekend can be a profitable one on the books as well! š¤©š¤©š¤©š¤©š¤©š¤©š¤©
Stay safe, enjoy the games, and gamble responsibly!
Best,
8-Bit
Hope the kings parlay that won us the day didnāt factor too much into the Bavada buttmunch - that was the greatest bet of many of our lives