Issue 24: 2 Unit 💣, Super Platinum Mega Goat
You are NOT going to want to miss this one people!
Good day to you, dear readers.
And welcome to another issue of the word’s finest, youngest, most daring newsletter!
Since we last spoke, much has taken place in the wild world of sports. The Houston Astros won the 2022 World Series, which I cashed a 1.25u bet on, the New York Jets beat the Buffalo Bills (?!), and the college basketball season got underway, to name a few.
Also, the League of Legends World Championship was won by Korean 4th seed DRX in epic fashion, as they beat SKT (the prime New England Patriots of esports) in a 5 game series (the equivalent of a 7 game series in traditional sports).
And of course, the World Cup has drawn even closer. Now we are just 12 days away from the first game of the tournament, Ecuador vs Qatar, which will take place at 8am Pacific time on November 20th.
On the gambling side of things, since we last spoke I have gone 22-15-2 for a small profit of +0.86u. On a weekend when a lot of guys I respect got absolutely crushed, I will take a profit, no matter how small. Shout out to the Astros, because this profit would not have been possible without them. Cheers!
Some of the highlights/lowlights of my betting since Friday:
I had Buccaneers -3 versus the Rams, which looked absolutely, unquestionably dead. Then Tom Brady came down from heaven and gifted me a push with this ridiculous final sequence.
I picked 3 big plus money winners! Iowa in college football at +175, and the Knicks + Jazz at +145 in the NBA on Friday.
On the flip side, I took Nets ML at +200 yesterday for a full unit, and it looked like I was going to win, until this horror show happened.
Again, all in all I am happy with this weekend. It wasn’t great, but it certainly wasn’t bad either. I will take +0.86u any day.
We learn, we wipe the slate clean, and we move forward.
And with that in mind… Let’s dig into some bets for tonight.
2 units - NHL 11/8, 4:00pm - Canucks @ Senators over 6.5 (-130)
Since I started this newsletter, oddly enough NHL has actually been my best sport. So far I have a record of 24-12 on the ice, with a net profit of +8.11u! I am not really sure how this has happened given that I definitely know the least about hockey out of all sports I bet on, but hey, apparently it makes me a lot of money so I am going to keep hammering it!
Tonight we are going to drop the hammering big bag on an NHL total. I have yet to make a max play on NHL, but my friends it is T-I-M-E!
For the SUPER PLATINUM MEGA GOAT!
We are headed to Ottawa, Canada, and we are taking the over with reckless abandon.
Vancouver is the 4th worst defensive team in hockey by goals against per game, allowing 4.08 goals a game, while Ottawa is the 10th worst at 3.45 per game. Just those two basic numbers already point to the over, as 4.08 + 3.45 = 7.53!
Those are bad numbers, and when you give these 2 teams the old fashioned eye test, you will see that they are super sloppy with the puck in their defensive ends as well. These clubs are not disciplined enough to avoid consistent defensive lapses.
Now I’m not saying that they have terrible defensive players, but this is a fair assessment as both teams rely on young defensemen, and both teams give you an opposite look on offense with their young fast players that always have their noses towards goal. Both of these teams are in the top half of the league in scoring, averaging 3.45 goals a game. And xG numbers suggest that these figures should be even higher.
So, what we have here are 2 young + fast teams that don’t space correctly on defense and allow for skating room all over the ice. Both teams are offense-first sides, and Vancouver also boasts a top 3 power play, which should be useful given that Ottawa has the 3rd most penalty minutes per game in the league. Who is number one on that list, you ask? Vancouver. Yeah, both teams will have plenty of power play opportunities in Ottawa this evening.
I see this game being played at a very fast pace with lots of open space on the ice for scoring chances. 3-3 gets us there with the inevitability of a 7th goal, but I can easily see one of these teams scoring 5 and winning 5-2.
Cheers to a great NHL season so far guys, let’s cash a big one tonight! If you have to take this total at plus money at 7, I think it’s still worth it. Don’t cry over a push!
1 unit - NHL 11/8, 4:00pm - Coyotes @ Sabres 1P -0.5 (+130)
Yes, the Sabres have lost their last 2 games, but those losses were on the road to 2 teams that you could easily argue are the class of the league in Carolina and Tampa Bay. There’s no shame in that, and they played Carolina very tough. And when I look for teams to cover puck lines in the first period, I look for teams that like to score in bunches. Buffalo certainly fits the bill there. Only the Bruins and Oilers have scored more than this young, dynamic Buffalo offense.
And at home, these guys have come out absolutely flying. In the few games I have seen the Sabres play at home this year, the eye test has been off the charts in the first period, these guys look like they all shotgunned a Red Bull right before puck drop. Not only are they at home, but they’ve had a few days off, and they welcome a Coyotes team that is in the beginning of a horrifically scheduled, FOURTEEN game road trip. Unreal. Even though they aren’t deep into it yet, I think that may have an effect on the mental states of these players.
Given all of that, I think there’s a great chance the Sabres get the jump on Arizona here, and +130 is a great price, so give me the Sabres in the first period here. Let’s get this cash guys!
1 unit - NHL 11/8, 4:00pm - Victor Olofsson o2.5 SOG (-125)
See the analysis above for this one.
All of the same elements here (Olofsson is on the Sabres).
0.75 unit - NHL 11/8, 4:00pm - Flames @ Devils over 6.5 (-129)
I am addicted to NHL overs.
0.5 unit - NCAAF 11/8, 4:00pm - Eastern Michigan TT under 32 @ Akron (-120)
I was actually expecting this team total to be set in the low to mid 20s. This is such a big difference that I think I may be missing something here, and my college football record has been crap, so I am keeping it light, but I will be watching with intrigue.
0.5 unit - NCAAB 11/8, 4:00pm - Sacred Heart @ Hartford +7 (-110)
I have this game as a pick ‘em, but Hartford’s coach just stepped down yesterday so this line has moved like crazy. I think that will make a difference, but not a 7 point difference!
1 unit - NHL 11/8, 7:00pm - Predators @ Kraken over 6 (-130)
Addiction entering overdrive on NHL overs.
Well, guys and gals, that does it for today.
Sorry, no detailed performance review with a chart. I honestly just don’t have enough time for all of that today. But that means you all will get an extra juicy, updated chart next week!
If you have any questions or comments, send ‘em my way and I will happily give you a paragraph response in the Friday issue.
Thanks for reading as always, and one last thing!
Best of luck if you bet the Super Platinum Mega Goat.
No way it can lose… Right?
